Does a lot help a lot? Forecasting stock returns with pooling strategies in a data‐rich environment

A variety of recent studies provide a skeptical view on the predictability of stock returns. Empirical evidence shows that most prediction models suffer from a loss of information, model uncertainty, and structural instability by relying on low‐dimensional information sets. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of various lately refined forecasting strategies, which handle these issues by incorporating information from many potential predictor variables simultaneously. We investigate whether forecasting strategies that (i) combine information and (ii) combine individual forecasts are useful to predict US stock returns, that is, the market excess return, size, value, and the momentum premium. Our results show that methods combining information have remarkable in‐sample predictive ability. However, the out‐of‐sample performance suffers from highly volatile forecast errors. Forecast combinations face a better bias–efficiency trade‐off, yielding a consistently superior forecast performance for the market excess return and the size premium even after the 1970s.     

中原经济区包容性增长与战略支撑系统研究

本文在数据基础上,分析中原经济区包容性增长的基础,特别是城市基础、乡村基础、交通区位基础等。并进一步给出中原经济区包容性增长的基本构想,包括了中原经济区包容性增长的基本目标、基本原则、基本路径、基本方法以及战略支撑系统等。     

国际石油价格波动的结构性因素分析

文章将石油供给性冲击、需求性冲击和投机行为冲击3方面结构性因素细分为5个内生变量,构建反映油价波动的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,并运用模型对1999—2012年期间油价波动的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明:需求性冲击无论是长期还是短期都是油价波动的最主要因素;其次,投机性冲击对油价波动的影响也较大,不容忽视;短期突发事件和供给冲击短期对油价有些影响,长期影响基本消失。     

龙岩市小学生积极心理品质现状调查

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基于因子分析的烤烟主要化学成分特性

为准确评价烟叶质量,对3个等级317个烟叶样品进行常规化学成分分析,利用因子分析法对烟叶样品的化学成分及其比值进行综合评价。结果表明,烟叶主要化学成分总体比较协调,其总糖、还原糖含量偏高,不同等级烟叶化学成分差异明显。主要表现为含氮化合物与含碳化合物呈显著负相关,总氮与总植物碱呈显著正相关;对主要化学成分及其比值进行因子提取得到3个主因子,代表其方差贡献率的83%以上,分别为含碳因子、燃烧因子及含氮因子。     

因子von Neumann代数上的非线性中心化子

设m，n是任意非零整数，且满足(m＋n)(m－n)≠0， M是实或复数域F上的Hilbert空间上的一个因子von Neumann代数.利用代数分解方法证明了M上满足2mφ(AB)＋2nφ(BA)＝mφ(A)B＋mAφ(B)＋nφ(B)A＋nBφ(A)的非线性映射φ为可加中心化子，并刻画出具体形式φ：A→λA(λ∈F， A∈M).     

Flow and heat transfer behaviour of nanofluids in microchannels

Flow and heat transfer of aqueous based silica and alumina nanofluids in microchannels were experimentally investigated. The measured friction factors were higher than conventional model predictions at low Reynolds numbers particularly with high nanoparticle concentrations. A decrease in the friction factor was observed with increasing Reynolds number, possibly due to the augmentation of nanoparticle aggregate shape arising from fluid shear and alteration of local nanoparticle concentration and nanofluid viscosity. Augmentation of the silica nanoparticle morphology by fluid shear may also have affected the friction factor due to possible formation of a core/shell structure of the particles. Measured thermal conductivities of the silica nanofluids were in approximate agreement with the Maxwell-Crosser model, whereas the alumina nanofluids only showed slight enhancements. Enhanced convective heat transfer was observed for both nanofluids, relative to their base fluids (water), at low particle concentrations. Heat transfer enhancement increased with increasing Reynolds number and microchannel hydraulic diameter. However, the majority of experiments showed a larger increase in pumping power requirements relative to heat transfer enhancements, which may hinder the industrial uptake of the nanofluids, particularly in confined environments, such as Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS).     

高剪切反应器中有机相强化KHCO3/K2CO3溶液吸收CO2研究

在高剪切反应器（HSR）中研究了不同有机分散相对KHCO₃/K₂CO₃溶液吸收CO₂的强化效果，并考察了有机相与有机胺溶液复配使用对CO₂吸收率的影响。实验结果表明：环己烷、正庚烷对KHCO₃/K₂CO₃溶液吸收CO₂的强化效果明显，甲苯、正辛醇对KHCO₃/K₂CO₃溶液吸收CO₂则没有明显的强化效果；CO₂吸收率随HSR转速的增加而增加，随气液比、温度的增加而降低；环己烷对加入二乙醇胺活化的K₂CO₃溶液有较为明显的强化作用，CO₂吸收率最高可提高23%。与文献中不同反应器的对比表明HSR对CO₂具有较高的吸收效率。     

带有随机项Barbour单宿主模型正解的存在唯一性和最终有界性

考虑到血吸虫病传播过程受很多随机因素的影响,在Barbour模型的基础上引入随机项,建立血吸虫病随机模型.通过构造Lyapunov函数,利用It?积分证明了该随机系统正解的存在唯一性和最终有界性.     

脆性颗粒材料的超弹性软化模型及应变局部化模拟

在Volokh软化模型的基础上,考虑颗粒材料的变形和破坏机制,认为颗粒材料以剪切变形和破坏为主,提出了表示软化程度的软化因子概念,发展了两种能够部分表征颗粒材料力学行为特征的软化模式,并基于ABAQUS用户材料子程序(UMAT)开发相应程序.数值算例考察了上述模型模拟颗粒材料应变局部化现象和软化现象的能力.结果表明了所建议模型的有效性和可行性.